Live dashboard compiled from open-source intelligence
Data shows sustained decline in daily attack capacity from initial Feb 28 surge to near-zero by Apr 9 (Day 41). US-Iran ceasefire declared Apr 7, brokered by Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif. Attacks largely suspended Apr 8+. Ceasefire strained: Iran re-blocked Hormuz Apr 8 after Israel's massive Lebanon strikes (254 killed Apr 9 alone). Islamabad peace talks collapsed Apr 12 — VP Vance failed to reach deal after 21 hours of negotiations. Iran rejected US demand to abandon nuclear weapons capability. Trump ordered US Navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz effective Apr 12, intercepting any vessel paying tolls to Iran. Apr 13 (Day 45): US naval blockade enforcement began 10 AM ET. IRGC warned any military vessel approaching the strait will be "dealt with severely." Sporadic missile and drone activity resumed as ceasefire is effectively dead — IRGC claims full Hormuz control, Trump threatened to "eliminate" Iranian ships approaching US vessels. Apr 14 (Day 46): Blockade Day 2. Ceasefire technically expires Apr 22 with no diplomatic path visible. ~230 laden tankers remain trapped in Gulf; only 5–11 ships/day transiting vs. 100+ prewar average. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains in hiding, communicating via intermediaries. Strait effectively empty per marine tracking. Iran's UN rep demands war compensation from Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and Jordan. Vance says "ball is in Iran's court" — insists enriched uranium must leave Iran for any deal. UK Deputy PM Lammy met Vance in Washington, urging ceasefire continuation. Rubio joining first Israel-Lebanon talks since 1993. Iran's sports minister says national team may compete in US-hosted World Cup. IEA/IMF/World Bank joint statement warns fuel and fertilizer prices may stay elevated "for prolonged period" even after Hormuz reopens due to infrastructure damage. NATO allies formally declined to join US blockade. Apr 15 (Day 47): Ceasefire effectively dead. Trump hinted talks may resume in Pakistan "within 2 days"; IDF actively planning for return to war. Hezbollah fired 15 rockets/drones at northern Israel — first major Hezbollah salvo since ceasefire. Oil surged back above $100/bbl after Pakistan-brokered talks collapsed. Pakistan continuing shuttle diplomacy to revive negotiations. France and UK holding multilateral meeting on defensive Hormuz mission Apr 17. China condemned the blockade as "dangerous and irresponsible." Sporadic missile and drone activity continues along Gulf shipping lanes.
| Name | Role/Title | Date Killed |
|---|---|---|
| Ali Khamenei | Supreme Leader of Iran | Feb 28 |
| Hossein Salami | Commander-in-Chief, IRGC | Feb 28 |
| Mohammad Bagheri | Chief of General Staff | Feb 28 |
| Aziz Nasirzadeh | Chief of Staff, Armed Forces | Feb 28 |
| Abdolrahim Mousavi | Commander, Iranian Army | Feb 28 |
| Mohammad Pakpour | Commander, IRGC Ground Forces | Feb 28 |
| Mohammad Baseri | Ministry of Intelligence official | Mar 1 |
| Gholamreza Rezaian | Head of FARAJA police intelligence | Mar 1 |
| Ali Larijani | Secretary of Guardian Council | Mar 16 |
| Gholamreza Soleimani | Commander, IRGC Basij Militia | Mar 17 |
| Asghar Bagheri | Commander, IRGC Quds Force Unit 840 (Special Ops) | Apr 6 |
| Majid Khademi | IRGC Intelligence Chief ("top spymaster") | Apr 6 |
| 2 unnamed IRGC commanders | Killed in Asaluyeh petrochemical plant strike | Apr 7 |
| Kamal Kharazi | Former Foreign Minister (1997–2005); foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader | Apr 9 (died of wounds) |
+ Additional unnamed IRGC and government officials killed. Total confirmed: ~50+ senior regime figures. New Supreme Leader: Mojtaba Khamenei (son of Ali), elected Mar 8 — remains in hiding communicating via intermediaries.
| Country | Killed | Injured/Wounded | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | 2,076 | 26,500 | Health Ministry; HRANA: 3,636 killed (Apr 11); Iran Int'l: 4,700+ security forces killed; Hengaw: 6,620+ military killed |
| Lebanon | 1,888+ | 6,092+ | Israel's biggest single wave of strikes on Lebanon: 254 killed Apr 9 alone (92 civilians in Beirut). Ceasefire dispute. |
| Israel | 40 (13 mil, 27 civ) | 7,451+ | Haifa residential hit Apr 7; 4 killed by ballistic missile; 416 military personnel wounded |
| United States | 15 | 538+ | 7 combat, 2 non-combat, 6 KC-135 tanker crash. The Intercept (Apr 8): Pentagon accused of systematic casualty undercounting under Hegseth |
| UAE | 13 | 224 | Gulf state casualties; 537 ballistic missiles, 2,256 drones, 26 cruise missiles intercepted by THAAD/Patriot |
| Kuwait | 10 | 109 | Gulf state casualties |
| Iraq | 109 | 83 | PMF paramilitary; 30th PMF Brigade hit in Ninawa Apr 2 |
| Qatar | 4 | 16 | Minimal impact due to distance |
| Palestine | 4 | 3 | Minor casualties |
| Bahrain | 3 | 42 | US base presence |
| Turkey | 3 | — | Limited involvement |
| Oman | 3 | — | Neutral position impact |
| Saudi Arabia | 2 | 16 | Alliance commitment |
| Jordan | 0 | 19 | Defensive operations only |
| France | 1 | — | Limited European involvement |
| Azerbaijan | 0 | 4 | Minimal exposure |
Ceasefire Market Reaction: Brent crude plunged 15%+ on Apr 7–8 after Trump announced the ceasefire, dropping from ~$111 to ~$94/barrel. By Apr 10, prices rebounded to ~$98/barrel as Iran re-blocked Hormuz on Apr 8 following Israel's massive Lebanon strikes. Iran conditioning passage on IRGC clearance and yuan-denominated tolls. Apr 12 Blockade Escalation: After Islamabad talks collapsed, Trump ordered the US Navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, intercepting vessels that paid Iran tolls. Apr 13 enforcement began, Brent surged 7–8% to ~$102–103/barrel. Apr 14 (Day 2 of blockade): Brent trading ~$101–104/barrel range. Goldman Sachs: another month of Hormuz closure = Brent above $100 throughout 2026. Stratas Advisors Warning: Prolonged closure could spike Brent to $190/barrel, triggering a global recession. US gas prices up ~40% since war began. IEA/IMF/World Bank joint warning (Apr 14): Even after Hormuz reopens, supply chains will take time to normalize — fuel and fertilizer prices may remain elevated for an extended period due to infrastructure damage. Apr 15 (Day 3 of blockade): Brent surged back above $100/bbl after Pakistan-brokered peace talks collapsed and IDF signaled return to full hostilities. ANZ forecasts Brent at $88/bbl for end-2026 — projection now considered too optimistic given indefinite blockade. ~230 loaded tankers still trapped inside the Gulf. Shipping through the strait has not yet normalized.
During the 2025–2026 Iranian protests, security forces — including IRGC and Basij militia — carried out mass killings of civilians, primarily on 8–9 January 2026. Supreme Leader Khamenei ordered forces to "crush the protests by any means necessary." Estimates vary dramatically due to the near-total internet blackout and information suppression.
| Source | Death Toll | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Iranian Government | 3,117 | Official figure; incl. ~200 security forces. Published list of 2,986 names — HRANA says mostly unverifiable. |
| HRANA (US-based) | 7,007 verified | 6,488 adult protesters, 236 minors, 207 security forces, 76 non-participants. 11,000+ additional deaths under investigation. ("The Crimson Winter" report, Feb 23) |
| Iran International | 36,500+ | Based on government sources, eyewitness accounts, hospital data, and testimony from Iranian doctors/nurses. |
| Time Magazine | 30,000+ | Citing Iranian health ministry officials; 30,304 deaths registered in civilian hospitals for Jan 8–9 alone. |
| The Guardian | >30,000 | Citing medics and morgue staff. Less than 10% of deaths may have been officially registered. |
| UN Special Rapporteur | "Tens of thousands" | Noted massive discrepancy between official 3,117 and grassroots estimates. |
| The Sunday Times | 16,500–18,000 | Also reported 330,000 injured (Jan 17 report). |
| Khamenei (own admission) | "Several thousand" | State media broadcast, Jan 17. Blamed Trump and called all protesters "rioters and terrorists." |
The deadliest period was January 8–9, 2026, when IRGC and Basij forces were ordered to fire directly on crowds. Iran International's investigation found the mass killings were "planned and conducted in an organized manner" and ordered by Khamenei with approval of all three branches of government. An estimated 40,000+ people were arrested.
Iran Human Rights (IHR, Norway-based) reports 657 executions in Q1 2026, putting the regime on pace to exceed 2025's record. Over half are for drug-related offenses — violating international law. Rights groups warn the regime is using the war as cover to accelerate executions of political prisoners and protesters.
| Source | Key Finding |
|---|---|
| Iran Human Rights (IHR) | 657 executions in first 3 months of 2026; on track to surpass 2025 record year |
| Amnesty International | At least 8 sentenced to death for protest-related charges in Feb 2026; warned death penalty being used as "tool to instill fear" |
| Death Penalty Info Center | First executions of Dec 2025/Jan 2026 protesters carried out amid war; 3 men executed (protest-related) |
| Amnesty (Mar 2026) | 4 men executed in secret within 24 hours; 7 more at imminent risk. All 11 reported torture, forced confessions, unfair trials. |
| Human Rights Watch | Over half of executions for drug offenses — "blatantly violating international law" |
| The Guardian (Apr 2) | "Everyone is thinking about oil prices" — regime using fog of war to hide surge in executions |
Iran Human Rights director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam: "We are concerned that these executions and human rights violations are overshadowed by the war." Families of detained protesters are being warned by authorities not to contact anyone. The judiciary has stated it will show "no leniency" and called for expedited trials and executions.